US Economy Creates Far Fewer Jobs than Expected
Barry Wood

A new report by the U.S. Labor Department has stunned many economic forecasters （经济预报员）.

Jim Smith, a forecaster at the business school at the University of North Carolina, calls the December job report by the Labor Depratment amazingly puzzling. He had expected job growth up to 200,000. He, like economists advising President Bush, expects about two million new jobs to be created before the November presidential election （总统选举）.

"One thousand is clearly a lousy start. The only thing I can say is it is puzzling. Because it is completely out of character, out of line （不协调）, really, with all of the other data that are coming in. We had an all-time record Christmas shopping season（购物季节）. And yet retailers shed workers （削减工人）."

Mr. Smith speculates that companies may be investing in（在……方面投资） labor saving computer technology that is boosting productivity（提高生产力） but eliminating the need to hire more workers. Mr. Smith expects the U.S. economy will expand by at least five percent this year, which would be the best economic performance in many years.

Mike Donnelly, a forecaster for DRI Global Insights in Philadelphia, says the weak job report is likely to delay any central bank move to raise short-term interest rates（短期利率）, which are currently at their lowest level （处于最低点）in 40 years.

"We've got our official forecast the first rate increase comes in May 2004. You know this report coming out maybe that gets delayed to the next session on Sea Meeting in June. "

Other economists expect interest rates to remain unchanged for all of 2004.

The Labor Department report contained other disappointing news on the employment front, even though the unemployment rate（失业率） is now at a one-year low of 5.7 percent. The report says nearly a half million unemployed workers were so discouraged by the lack of job prospects (就业前景) that they dropped out of （退出）the work force. That explained why the nation's unemployment rate declined by two tenths of one percent even though there was hardly any job growth.

Despite the slow job growth in December and downward revisions for November, economists generally are boosting their forecasts for ( 加强对……的预测) U.S. and world growth for 2004 and 2005.