'Perfect Storm' of Factors Driving Up Oil Prices, say Experts

油价为何如此高？答案似多种多样

　



Since the beginning of the decade, gasoline prices in the United States have roughly tripled, while the global price of a barrel of oil has risen even more. The trend has inflicted pain on consumers and petroleum-dependent industries while massively boosting the fortunes of oil-producing nations and petroleum companies. Why are oil prices so high?

　

自从这十年开始以来，美国的汽油价格几乎翻了三倍，而全球石油价格涨得更多。这一趋势给消费者和依赖石油的产业带来痛苦的同时大大增加了产油国和石化公司的财富。为什么油价会这么高？

American motorists appear to grow more dismayed every time they go to a gasoline station. The average price for a gallon of fuel rose nearly six cents in the past week alone (about 1.3 cents per liter), and is more than 50 cents higher than a year ago (about 12 cents higher per liter).

　

美国开车的人每次去加油站似乎变得更为沮丧。仅仅在过去一周时间里，每加仑燃油的平均价格就涨了6美分，而且比去年高出了50多美分。

While consumers complain, others are pointing fingers.

　

消费者报怨，其他人则辩论谁该为此负责。

For Ray Carbone, who heads the New York-based energy trading firm Paramount Options, the issue boils down to three words: supply and demand. He notes that the world is consuming more fossil fuel each day, led by large, rapidly developing countries like China and India, at a time when global oil production is stagnant.

　

卡蓬是设在纽约的能源交易公司负责人。对于他来说，这个问题的根源就是三个词：供应与需求。他指出，世界每天在消费更多石化油，消费最多的是迅速发展中的大国如中国和印度，而此时的世界石油产量处于停滞状态。

"The demand numbers coming out of Asia, although slower than a year or two ago, have certainly put into the fore [shown] that the U.S. is not the big, big driver in demand that it used to be," Carbone said. "And that seems to be what people are having trouble coming to grips with, I think."

　

他说：“来自亚洲的需求数字尽管比一、两年前增长减缓了，可是肯定显示出美国不像过去一样是个大的需求者。我想，这好像是人们不好对付的。”

Despite rising oil consumption, the world's largest oil cartel, OPEC, has resisted calls to boost production. But OPEC officials are offering no apologies, and scoff at the theory that inadequate supply to meet rising demand lies at the heart of today's elevated oil prices. OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri.

　

尽管石油消费在增长，世界最大的石油卡特尔--石油输出国组织欧佩克却抵制提高生产的呼声。这个组织官员非但没有表示歉意，反而嘲笑有关今天油价上涨关键在于供应不足无法满足上涨需求的理论。

"The price has nothing to do with supply and demand," he said. "Other factors affect the price. OPEC will not hesitate to increase production if we think the higher price is because of a shortage of oil in the market. But we are confident that it is not a shortage of oil; it is something else."

　

欧佩克秘书长巴德里说：“价格与供应和需求无关。其他因素影响价格。如果我们认为油价更高是因为市场上的油短缺就会毫不犹豫提高产量。但是我们有信心并不是油短缺，而是别的问题。”

Who is right in this debate, the energy traders or OPEC?

　

在这场辩论中，谁说的对？是能源交易人士还是石油输出国组织？

They both are, according to Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and a senior fellow at the Washington-based Cato Institute. Hanke says, without a doubt, current demand for oil exceeds supply.

　

约翰霍普金斯大学应用经济学教授和华盛顿的卡托研究所的高级研究员汉克认为，他们说的都对。汉克说，毫无疑问，现有的石油需求超过了供应。

"We really had a surge in demand, and a lot of this occurred as a result of rapid world growth," he said. "World growth has been increasing at a fairly high rate in the last three or four years. And to some extent it has been energy-intensive in use, because we have had a fairly large increase in the middle class in a lot of these developing countries."

　

他说：“我们的确需求有增加。许多是由于世界快速增长所导致的。在过去三或四年里，世界增长速度相当高。而且在某种程度上，增长是以能源集中使用的形式，因为在许多发展中国家，中产阶级有相当大的增加。”

But other factors contribute as well. Hanke says amid uncertainty and volatility in global stock markets, many investors have poured money into commodities such as oil. This trend, combined with investor assumptions that oil prices will remain high, have helped boost prices further, which has in turn fed more investor speculation in the market.

　

但是，其他因素也起作用。汉克说，面对全球股市不确定和动荡，许多投资人将资金投入石油等商品，这一趋势加上投资人预期石油价格将保持在高价位，促使价格进一步上升，从而导致市场上更多投资人投机。

Hanke says the weak U.S. dollar does not help matters.

　

汉克说，美元贬值对问题不会有帮助作用。

"Twenty-five percent of the increase in oil prices is strictly due to the fact that the dollar has gone down by 25 percent, because oil all over the world is priced in dollars," he said.

　

他说：“油价上涨的25%严格意义上在于美元贬值了25%，因为世界石油价格是按美元计算。”

Taken together, Hanke says, these and other factors have made for a "perfect storm" that relentlessly drives up oil prices with no end in sight.

　

汉克说，这些因素和其他因素合起来造就了一场不断推动油价涨不到头的“完美的风暴”。

What can be done about it? Hanke says oil prices would moderate if supply were increased and world demand leveled off or subsided. He says prices would also be lower if oil-producing nations reversed the trend towards state monopoly control of their petroleum sectors, if the U.S. government stopped stockpiling emergency oil for its Strategic Petroleum Reserve program, or if the U.S. dollar were to strengthen.

　

对这个问题，有什么措施呢？汉克说，如果增加供应和世界需求不变或者减少，油价会出现缓和。他说，如果产油国遏制国家垄断控制石油部门这个趋势，如果美国政府停止储存紧急用石油的战略石油储备项目，或者如果美元价值加强，价格还会更低。

For that last suggestion to become reality, however, U.S. interest rates would likely have to rise, something America's central bank is unlikely to tolerate so long as the U.S. economy remains weak. Ironically, many economists blame America's anemic economic performance, in part, on higher fuel prices.

　

然而， 要让最后这个建议变成现实，美国利率将可能必须上升。只要美国经济仍然脆弱，美国的中央银行就不可能接受这么做。具有讽刺意味的是，许多经济学者将美国经济呈现停滞的部分原因归咎于油价上涨。