Unit Ten

Alvin Toffler writes about the fact that technolo-

gy is advancing much faster today than ever before in

history. The symbols of technology are no longer facto-

ry smokestacks or assembly lines. As we are headed for 

the future, the pace will quicken still further.

THE FANTASTIC SPURT IN TECHNOLOGY

A. Toffler

To most people the term  technology conjures up images of smoky steel 

mills or noisy machines. Perhaps the classic  representation of technology is

still the  assembly  line  created by Henry Ford half a century ago and  made

into a social  symbol by Charlie  Chaplin  in  Modern Times .  This  symbol, 

however,  has always been inadequate and misleading, for technology has al-

ways been more than  factories and  machines.  The  invention of  the  horse 

collar in the middle ages led  to major  changes  in agricultural  methods and 

was as much a  technological advance as  the invention of the Bessemer fur-

nace centuries  later. Moreover, technology  includes  techniques, or ways to

do things, as well  as the machines that  may or may  not be necessary to ap-

ply them. It includes ways to make  chemical   reactions occur, ways to breed 

fish, plant forests, light theaters, count votes or teach history.

The  old  symbols of technology are even more  misleading  today,  when

the most advanced technological processes are carried out far from assembly

lines or blast furnaces. Indeed, in  electronics,  in  space  technology, in  most

of the new industries, quiet and clean  surroundings   are  characteristic--  even 

sometimes essential. And the assembly line - the organization of large numbers

of men  to  carry out  simple  repetitive  functions - is outdated. It  is  time  for 

our  symbols  of   technology  to  change - to  catch  up  with  the  quickening

in technology itself .

This acceleration is frequently dramatized by a brief account of the progress

in  transportation.  It  has  been  pointed  out,  for  example,  that  in  6000  BC

the fastest transportation available to man over long  distances  was  the  camel 

caravan, averaging  eight  miles  per hour (mph) . It  was  not  until  about  1600

when the  chariot  was  invented  that the  maximum  speed  was  raised  to

roughly twenty miles per hour.

So impressive was this invention, so difficult was  it  to  exceed this  speed

limit, that nearly 3,500 years later, when  the  first  mail  coach began operating

in England in 1784,  it averaged  a  mere  ten mph. The first steam  locomotive，

introduced   in  1825,  could   have  a  top  speed  of  only  thirteen  mph  and

the great sailing ships of the time labored  along  at  less  than  half  that  speed.

It  was  probably  not  until  the  1880's  that  man,  with   the  help  of  a  more

advanced  steam   locomotive,  managed  to  reach a  speed  of  one  hundred

mph. It took the human  race  millions of  years to  attain  that  record. 

It  took only  fifty-eight  years， however, to go four times  that fast, so  

that  by  1938    men  in  airplanes  were  traveling  at  better  than  400  mph.  It

took  a   mere    twenty-year flick of time to double the limit again. Arid  by  the 

1960's  rocket  planes  approached  speeds of  4,000  mph.  and-men  in  space 

capsules  were circling the earth at 18,000 mph.

Whether  we  examine  distances  traveled,  altitudes  reached,  or  minerals 

mined, the same  accelerative  trend  is  obvious.  The  pattern,  here  and  in  a

thousand  other  statistical series,  is absolutely clear and  unmistakable. 

Thousands of years go by,  and then,  in our own times,  a sudden  bursting

of the limits, a fantastic spurt forward.

The  reason for this is that  technology  feeds on itself.  Technology  makes

more  technology possible,  as we  can see  if  we  look  for a  moment   at  the

process of innovation. Technological innovation consists of three stages, linked 

together into a  self-reinforcing  cycle. First, there  is  the creative, feasible  idea.

Second, its practical application. Third, its diffusion through  society.  

The process is completed,  the loop closed,  when  the  diffusion  of  tech-

nology  embodying the new  idea,  in turn,  helps  generate  new  creative  ideas.

Today there is evidence that  the time between each of  the  steps  in  this  cycle 

has been shortened.

Thus it  is not merely  true, as frequently noted , that  90 percent of  al  the

scientists who ever  lived  are now  alive,  and  that  new  scientific  discoveries

are  being  made  every  day.  These  new  ideas  are  put  to work  much more 

quickly than ever  before. The time  between  the  first  and  second  stages  of

cycle - between  idea and  application-- has  been  radically  reduced. the  This

is a striking difference between  ourselves and our ancestors. It  is not  that we

are  more   eager  or  less  lazy  than  our  ancestors,  but  we  have,  with  the

passage of time,  invented all sorts of social devices to hasten the process.   

But if it takes less time to bring a new idea to the marketplace, it also  takes

less  time for  it  to  sweep  through  the  society. For example, the refrigerator

was introduced  in  the United  States  before  1920,   yet  its peak  production

did not come until more  than thirty  years later.  However,  by 1950- in  only  a

few  years - television  had  grown  from  a  laboratory  novelty  to  the  biggest

part of show business.  So the  interval  between the  second  and  third  stages

of the  cycle - between  application  and  diffusion - has  likewise  been  cut, and

the pace of diffusion is rising with astonishing speed.

The  stepped-up  pace  of   invention,  application   and  diffusion, in  turn,

accelerates the whole cycle still further. For new machines or techniques are  not

merely a product, but a source, of fresh creative ideas.