Taiwan Real Estate Flourishes
ANTICIPATION THAT a wave of cash from mainland China will eventually reach Taiwan is helping to turn its real estate into a hot property.
Markets in Taiwan, one of Asia's worst laggards as an investment destination in recent years, were livened up by the Nationalist Party's victory in the March 22 presidential election. On May 20, winner Ma Ying-jeou will be inaugurated, succeeding Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party.
During Mr. Chen's eight-year tenure, Taiwan's benchmark stock index barely budged, even as Hong Kong's shot up 75% and Shanghai's doubled. Right after Mr. Ma's victory, Taiwan's index shot up nearly 10% above where it was shortly before the vote, but after some cooling it's now 4.6% higher than on election day.
That's nothing compared with property prices.
Billy Yen, general manager for property brokerage DTZ Taiwan, estimates home prices have risen as much as 30% since the voting. And he thinks that by the end of 2008, prices could be 60% higher than they were March 22.
Hong Van, managing director of Taiwan for CB Richard Ellis, says high-end apartments in the Taipei suburbs have risen more than 50% since before the election, to above NT$1.5 million (US$49,259) per 'ping,' or about US$1,369 a square foot. (A ping is equal to about 36 square feet.)
The sharp change in sentiment is rooted in Mr. Ma's pledge to open Taiwan's property market to Chinese investors as part of a broader effort to more closely tie the economies of the mainland and Taiwan. Under Mr. Chen, Taiwan adopted an isolationist stance that sent the Taiwanese property market into a slumber.
Since Mr. Ma's victory, DTZ's Mr. Yen has been meeting potential investors in Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong, who, like him, read it as a turning point for Taiwan's economy. In the highest-profile reflection of the new optimism, nine mainland tycoons -- including power couple Pan Shiyi and Zhang Xin of Soho China and Li Silian of Guangzhou R&F -- were trailed by camera teams as they visited sites in Taipei and Taichung.
Sentiment had been 'pretty negative' on the domestic residential market, and now it's 'very strong and positive,' says Daniel Hsiao, a Taipei-based property analyst with Taiwan Ratings Corp. He expects large numbers of Taiwanese businessmen who have moved to mainland China in recent years to seek luxury residences back home.
During Mr. Chen's tenure, some investors stayed out of Taiwan property fearing money would be difficult to pull out. Now, Mr. Ma is pledging to allow free capital flows.
The timing could be tailor made for cash-rich mainland Chinese eager to diversify their assets amid a continuing campaign by Beijing to tamp down its domestic property market. 'There is an overflow of investment dollars in China, and it's happening just as Taiwan is opening up,' DTZ's Mr. Yen says.
Local Taiwanese families that have hoarded cash in recent years while avoiding the investment market are another potentially big source of funds. Sharon Lam, an economist with Morgan Stanley, estimated last month that Taiwan's 'household cash position' -- money in bank deposits plus household cash -- is almost 200% of gross domestic product. That's the highest percentage in Asia, she noted.
Taiwan's property markets have underperformed the rest of the region for the better part of a decade. High-end home prices per square foot in Taipei now cost one-third to one-half of those in Hong Kong.
Shares of many Taiwan developers have jumped this year and -- in some recent cases -- have then fallen. Citi Investment Research changed property giant Cathay Real Estate Development to a 'sell' from a 'buy' last month, arguing that the stock had surged too much too quickly. It said the company's swift sales of flats in the first quarter, ahead of the election, also leaves Cathay needing more land, which will be costly in the 'current hot environment.'
On April 14, the stock was at NT$30, compared with NT$15.10 at the end of 2007. On Wednesday, it closed at NT$24.45, still 62% up for the year. The Taipei market was closed Thursday for a holiday.
Another giant, Chong Hong Construction, which focuses on higher-end homebuyers, has seen its shares soar to NT$110 April 17 from NT$53.90 at the start of the year. On Wednesday, the stock closed at NT$94.
If roadblocks scuttle some of President-elect Ma's proposed policies, particularly those requiring a breakthrough in Beijing-Taipei relations, Taiwan's current property-price boom could resemble a bubble. The mainland and Taiwan still lack a banking treaty, for instance, making credit checks and collateral enforcement nearly impossible.
Some market observers are already warning of post-election overexuberance. Andre Chang, a property analyst with Citi Investment Research in Taipei, warns of a potential bubble forming as mass-market buyers, who need homes to remain affordable, begin to 'reach a stretched level.'
In the medium term, top-grade office space in Taipei might be an attractive sector for property investors. Office rentals in central Taipei fell after Mr. Chen became president in 2000 as business sentiment waned. During his tenure, rents have risen about one-third, most of that in the past year or two, according to CBRE's Mr. Van.
Now, as Taiwanese businesses expand and Taipei becomes a more attractive home for multinational corporations, office space is expected to be in bigger demand. Vacancies have now dropped to a five-year low of 4% in the city center, when office space in the Taipei 101 tower, currently the world's tallest building, is excluded.
Over the next one to two years, CBRE's Mr. Van says, office rentals should go up as more companies need space. Rates for some high-end offices, he says, could 'easily by Christmas' reach NT$4,000 per ping -- about US$3.60 per square foot -- 'which is not anything we've ever seen in the history of this market.'
With office rents likely to rise, real-estate investment trusts could be good options, some analysts say.
有人预期中国大陆的资金最终将涌入台湾，这种期望使台湾房地产市场变成了炙手可热的投资选择。
作为一个投资目的地，台湾是近年来亚洲地区发展最慢的市场。在3月22日国民党赢得总统竞选胜利后，这个市场被注入了新的活力。马英九将于5月20日宣誓就职，接替民进党的陈水扁。
在陈水扁八年执政期内，台湾的基准股指基本没有上涨，而同期香港股市上涨了75%，上海股市飙升了一倍。在马英九获胜后不久，台湾的基准股指较大选投票前上涨了近10%，之后又有所回落，目前仍比大选投票当天高4.6%。而房地产价格的涨势更是无可比拟。
房地产经纪商戴德梁行台湾(DTZ Taiwan)总经理颜炳立(Billy Yen)估计，自大选投票以来，住房价格的上涨幅度高达30%。而且，他认为，到2008年底，住房价格较3月22日可能会上涨60%。
世邦魏理仕(CB Richard Ellis)台湾分公司的董事总经理云惟鸿(Hong Van)说，台北郊区的高端公寓价格较大选前已经上涨了50%以上，目前的价格大约是每坪新台币150万元（合49,259美元）以上，相当于每平方英尺1,369美元左右。（一坪约等于36平方英尺。）
市场人气的巨变主要是因为马英九承诺将向中国大陆的投资者开放台湾的房地产市场，这也是为了使台湾经济和中国大陆经济联系变得更加紧密所作的努力之一。在陈水扁执政期间，台湾采取的是孤立政策，这令台湾地产市场陷入了低迷。
自马英九赢得总统大选以来，戴德梁行的颜炳立已经和来自北京、上海及香港的潜在投资者进行了会面。和颜炳立一样，这些投资者将马英九的胜利解读为台湾经济的一个转折点。此外，SOHO中国(Soho China)的潘石屹和张欣夫妇以及广州富力地产(Guangzhou R&F)的李思廉等九位中国大陆大亨前往台北和台中访问一些建筑工地时甚至有记者左右相随，这或许是对台湾地产市场焕发的新乐观情绪最为高调的体现。
中华信用评等公司(Taiwan Ratings Corp.)驻台北地产分析师萧黎明(Daniel Hsiao)说，台湾住宅市场的人气之前一直都不太好，而眼下却是非常积极和强劲。他预计，很多在最近几年迁往中国大陆的台湾商人可能会回到岛内购买豪宅。
在陈水扁掌权期间，一些投资者对台湾房地产市场退避三舍，他们担心一旦投入就很难撤出资金。如今，马英九承诺将允许资本的自由流动。
随着北京不断采取措施为中国大陆的房地产市场降温，那些拥有大量现金的大陆投资者急于丰富其资产组合。而台湾市场开放的时机恰到好处，似乎正是为了满足他们的这一需求。戴德梁行的颜炳立说，中国大陆出现了投资外流局面，这种状况的出现恰逢台湾市场开始开放之际。
台湾的家庭近几年来一直避免参与投资市场，因此手中存下了大笔现金，他们也是房地产市场一大潜在资金来源。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)经济学家林琰(Sharon Lam)上个月估计，台湾家庭持有的现金头寸──银行存款和家庭现金的总和──差不多是台湾地区生产总值的2倍。她指出，这是亚洲地区这一指标的最高水平。
在过去十年的大部分时间中，台湾地产市场的表现一直逊于亚洲其他地区。现在，台湾住房每平方英尺的价格是香港的三分之一到一半。
一些台湾地产开发商的股票今年大幅上涨，但是最近又出现了回落。花旗投资研究(Citi Investment Research)上个月把对地产巨头国泰建设股份有限公司(Cathay Real Estate Development)的评级从“买进”下调至“卖出”，原因是这只股票短时间内的涨幅过大。花旗投资研究还表示，该公司第一季度（在大选前）的公寓销售速度迅速，这可能会促使它需要更多的土地，而在眼下地产市场升温的状况下，获得土地的成本将变得很高。
在4月14日，国泰建设收于新台币30元，2007年底的股价为新台币15.10元。周三，该股收于新台币24.45元，今年累计上涨62%。台湾市场周四因假期休市。
另一家地产巨头、以高端住房买家为业务重点的长虹建设股份有限公司(Chong Hong Construction)股价也出现了大幅上涨。4月17日，该股收于新台币110元，今年年初为新台币53.90元。周三，长虹建设收于新台币94元。
如果一些障碍阻碍了当选总统马英九所提出政策（特别是那些要求在北京和台湾关系上取得突破的政策）的实施，台湾眼下的房产价格上涨可能会形成泡沫。大陆和台湾之间还没有就银行交易达成协议，比如基本无法查询购房人的信用状况或者对抵押品进行强制执行。
一些市场观察人士已经对大选后的过分乐观情绪发出警告。花旗投资研究的地产分析师Andre Chang警告说，大众市场的买家需要住房价格维持在他们能够承担的水平上，当他们变得力不从心的时候，房地产市场的泡沫可能就形成了。
从中短期来看，台北的高级写字楼或许对地产投资者仍具有一定的吸引力。在陈水扁于2000年就任总统后，台北中部的写字楼租金就开始下跌，因商业人气有所减退。世邦魏理仕的云惟鸿称，在陈水扁在任期间，租金上涨了大约三分之一，不过其中大部分涨幅出现在最近一两年。
现在，随着台湾企业不断发展，台北日益成为更具魅力的跨国公司地区总部所在地，预计对办公面积的需求将大幅增加。台北市中心不包括台北101大楼在内的空置率已经下降至4%的五年低点。台北101大楼是目前全球最高的建筑。
世邦魏理仕的云惟鸿说，在未来一到两年中，随着更多公司需要办公空间，写字楼租金应该会继续上涨。他说，一些高档写字楼的租金在圣诞节前很可能轻松达到每坪新台币4,000元（合每平方英尺3.60美元）的水平。这是台湾市场发展历史上前所未有的。
一些分析师称，由于写字楼租金很可能上涨，因此房地产投资信托基金可能是不错的投资选择。