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LONDON (AFP) — World temperatures will cool slightly in 2008, but it will remain among the top 10 hottest years on record, British weather experts predicted.
The impact of a strong La Nina climate pattern over the Pacific will help keep temperatures down, according to the annual forecast by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia.
Overall the global temperature is expected to be 0.37 degrees Celsius above the long-term average of 14.0 degree, making it the coolest year since 2000 when the value was 0.24 degrees Celsius above the average.
“Phenomena such as El Nino and La Nina have a significant influence on global surface temperature and the current strong La Nina will act to limit temperatures in 2008,” said Professor Chris Folland of the Met Office.
“However mean temperature is still expected to be significantly warmer than in 2000 ... Sharply renewed warming is likely once La Nina declines,” he added.
The forecasts take into account El Nino and La Nina, ballooning greenhouse gas levels as well as solar effect and natural variations in the world’s oceans.
The cooling comes against the background of an underlying warming trend, said Professor Phil Jones, Director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.
“The fact that 2008 is forecast to be cooler than any of the last seven years — and that 2007 did not break the record warmth set on 1998 — does not mean that global warming has gone away,” he said.
“What matters is the underlying rate of warming — the period 2001-2007 with an average of 0.44 degrees Celsius above the 1961-90 average was 0.21 degrees Celsius warmer than corresponding values for the period 1991-2000.”
La Nina, effectively a drop in sea surface temperatures off the western coast of South America, can cause havoc with weather patterns in many parts of the globe.
El Nino, a warming of Pacific sea surface temperatures, was blamed for a lengthy drought in Australia, flooding in the Horn of Africa and Bolivia, and more severe winter monsoons in South Asia in 2006-2007.
参考译文：
伦敦(法新社)消息：英国气象专家预测，2008年全球温度会略有下降，但仍为有史以来十大最热年份之一。
根据英国气象局和东英吉利大学的年度预报，一种强劲的拉尼娜气候模式对太平洋的影响将促使气温下降。
总体而言，2008年全球气温可望比长期以来的平均气温(14摄氏度)高0.37摄氏度，使之成为自2000年以来最凉爽的年份。2000年全球气温比长期以来的平均气温高0.24摄氏度。
“厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜等气候现象对全球表面温度有重大的影响，当前强劲的拉尼娜现象将发挥作用，限制2008年的气温，”英国气象局克里斯·福兰德教授说。
他又说：“不过，平均气温仍可能比2000年的平均气温高得多……一旦拉尼娜现象减弱，气温很可能会急剧回升。”
这些预报考虑到了厄尔尼诺现象、拉尼娜现象、不断增长的温室气体水平以及太阳活动和全球海洋的自然变化。
东英吉利大学气候研究中心主任菲尔·琼斯教授说，气温降低是在潜在变暖趋势的背景下出现的。
他说：“2008年预计比过去七年都凉爽，并且2007年并没有打破1998年气温最高的记录，但这并不意味着全球变暖趋势已消退了。”
“重要的是潜在的变暖速度——2001年至2007年间的平均气温比1961年至1990年间的平均气温高0.44摄氏度，而比1991年至2000年间的平均气温高0.21摄氏度。
拉尼娜现象，即南美洲西海岸附近的海面温度的显著降低，能够对全球很多地方的气候模式造成严重的破坏。
厄尔尼诺现象，即太平洋海面温度的上升，被认为是澳大利亚持续干旱、非洲之角及玻利维亚洪灾以及南亚2006年至2007年更为严酷的冬季雨季的罪魁祸首。
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