Jan Liman does not know how to safeguard the future of Meblat, his Warsaw-based kitchen furniture company. He has good sources of timber and plenty of orders. But he is short of skilled workers.

“Two [out of 12] workers have emigrated to Ireland. A third man has resigned saying he was also going to Ireland. Trying to find replacements has been fruitless,” he says.

The Polish entrepreneur's complaints are echoed across the European Union's new member states in central and eastern Europe. The squeeze is worst in the construction industry but is also gripping sectors as different as baking and banking. Engineers, technicians and factory hands are all in short supply.

Fuelled by strong economic growth and soaring foreign investment, employment is increasing in availability just as emigration has sucked around 5m workers from eastern to western Europe. According to Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency, labour costs are growing at their fastest rate since the end of Communism – with a 30 per cent increase in nominal costs in Latvia in the year to last September and rises of more than 20 per cent in Romania, Estonia and Lithuania. In Poland, the largest new member, the rise was just under 12 per cent.

In real terms, average gross wages in Poland rose more than 7 per cent in the first nine months of 2007 and in Romania by nearly 16 per cent, according to the Vienna-based Wiiw research institute.

While unemployment levels in western Europe have stayed at around 8 per cent since 2002, in the east they have slid from 14 per cent to under 9 per cent. In the region's booming capital cities, almost everybody who wants work has a job. Leszek Wronski, head of the central Europe division of KPMG, the accountant and management consultant, says: “We have a job market controlled by employees.”

For many east European workers, this control is very welcome. For 15 years they watched as company owners won much of the benefit of the post-Communist transition. Now workers are securing a bigger share of the rewards. As Donald Tusk, Poland's prime minister, told the Financial Times recently: “The lack of labour in Poland is a problem in some industries ... But it is also important for people to enjoy the fruits of economic growth.”

However, for governments and companies alike, rising labour costs and growing skills shortages raise big questions about the region's future competitiveness. Everything from decisions on investment location to education, migration and population policies is coming under scrutiny.

There is no immediate need for panic. Even after the recent pay surges, differences between west and east Europe remain huge. In Germany, hourly labour costs are about €28 ($41.40, £21.15), compared with some €8 in the Czech Republic, €7.50 in Poland and €4 in Romania. Rafal Krasnodebski, a partner at the Warsaw office of PwC, the accountancy and consultancy group, says: “Poland and Slovakia were 70-80 per cent cheaper than western Europe in 2004. Now it's 60-70 per cent. So it's still cheaper [there] and likely to be cheaper for a long time to come.”

The region has since 2002 seen a particularly sharp cyclical upswing in gross domestic product growth, averaging more than 5 per cent annually. Yet while east European economies slowly converge with those of western Europe, including in labour costs, the current pay surge contains significant one-off elements. An easing of restrictions on working in western Europe, which accompanied EU enlargement, has allowed millions to emigrate, particularly from Poland and Romania, the two most populous countries. Pay has risen fastest for those in greatest demand in the west. Building workers' wages last year rose 20 per cent in Poland, 25 per cent in Romania and 35 per cent in Latvia.

Now, with a credit squeeze hampering the US economy and clouding the western European outlook, economists are examining prospects for the EU's new members. While most see continued solid growth, they expect a slowdown from 6.5 per cent last year to perhaps 5 per cent in 2008. Some governments and central banks in the region are in any case slowing growth by trying to reduce high inflation and current account deficits. Zbigniew Kominek, a senior economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the multilateral bank for the ex-Communist countries, says: “The cyclical increase in economic growth will not last indefinitely.”

However, even if labour markets ease a little, there will be no return to the super-abundance of workers of five years ago. The region's populations are ageing even faster than in western Europe and, with the added effects of migration, the number of working-age people is falling in the Baltic states and central Europe. Eurostat predicts that the population of the new member states will decline from 103.6m in 2004 to under 100.6m in 2015, with particularly sharp drops in working-age people.

So companies and governments must prepare for a long period of tight labour markets. For policymakers, the first task is to raise employment rates. The region is burdened with low rates of participation in the labour market, especially among older people. In Poland, the employment rate at the end of 2006 was just 54.5 per cent, compared with 67.5 per cent in Germany and 77.4 per cent in Denmark, the EU's highest rate. Among people aged 55-64, the Polish employment rate was just 28.1 per cent, compared with 48.4 per cent in Germany.

The east European numbers are depressed by the use of early retirement and disability awards during the post-Communist restructuring. But political leaders are cautious about limiting access to welfare or initiating other policies that might provoke a backlash. After years of effort, the region is suffering reform fatigue.

Next, policymakers and employers will need to ensure wage labour productivity keeps pace with labour cost increases. According to a report this week by the Conference Board, a US business research organisation, labour productivity in the east is much lower than in the west. In Poland, for example, it was just 40 per cent of German levels. But the difference in unit labour costs is much greater, so employers continue to relocate labour-intensive operations from west to east – as Finland's Nokia announced this week it would do, closing a German mobile phone plant with the loss of 2,300 jobs and expanding a Romanian factory that will employ 3,500.

However, as Capital Economics, a UK-based research group, warns in a report this week, in Poland and the Czech Republic (though not in Slovakia) recent wage increases have exceeded productivity gains. In Romania, Christian Popa, deputy central bank governor, says further labour market reforms are needed to improve flexibility and so raise productivity. “I believe this is the solution and it's no quick fix.”

The Lisbon Council, a Brussels-based think-tank, says in a report that governments and employers must redouble efforts to raise productivity through better education and training. “The countries of central and eastern Europe lag western Europe considerably in human capital acquisition and deployment.” The report argues that while the region's schools are broadly as effective as western Europe's, there are big gaps in lifetime adult education, including on-the-job training. Older workers, trained in obsolete ways under Communism, face the greatest difficulties.

Companies are also responding to rising wages by demanding more from their workers. In business services, workers are being transferred to higher added-value operations involving direct contact with clients, while simpler functions are moved to China and India. Marketing and financial services groups, driven to pay €100,000 a year or more for experienced executives, are giving them tougher targets.

Even for high-paying international banks, personnel management is a headache. Stephen van Groningen, head of the Romanian subsidiary of Raiffeisen International, the Austrian bank, says: “The situation is unsustainable. People are becoming extremely opportunistic in job hunting. People come to work for the bank and leave after three months. Three months later they want to come back – and in certain cases I have to say yes.”

Lower down the wage ladder, life is tougher for employers, particularly at smaller companies. Agnieszka Jagiela, recruitment manager at 5 a Sec, a Polish dry cleaning chain with 80 outlets, says: “High staff turnover is a constant problem even though we pay close to the national average wage and offer four kinds of bonus.” Construction is booming at a time when workers are in demand across Europe. Diwaker Singh, managing director of Copper Beech, a Romanian property developer, says: “There is a desperate shortage of labour because there are many projects happening and so many emigrants.”

Many employers are responding by improving perks, such as company cars, and trying to retain staff through loyalty bonuses, training schemes and career development. For multinationals this is familiar territory. But for inexperienced local employers it is often new. Marek Masalski, head of Grupa Konsultacyjna, an employment agency in eastern Poland, says: “Some employers are still not fully aware of the importance of non-pay factors in motivating and employing people.”

So far, rising labour costs are not affecting the region's overall attraction. The EBRD estimates that foreign direct investment into central and south-east Europe last year totalled $44bn (£22bn, €30bn), the fourth strong year in succession. Companies that see eastern Europe as a market as well as a cheap-labour base are glad of the increased spending power that higher pay brings. Also, a lot of current FDI is being generated by multinationals already well established in eastern Europe, notably carmakers, which are bringing their component suppliers into the region.

But among more mobile, cost-conscious investors, there is a clear shift away from hotspots including Prague, Warsaw, Budapest and Bratislava, where labour is short, in favour of locations offering more scope for recruitment. Favoured regions include Silesia in Poland and large parts of Romania, while pioneers are looking further east – beyond the EU, to Ukraine and Moldova.

Textile companies, particularly sensitive to labour costs, have led the way. But other groups are not far behind, such as Genpact, a US business services provider part-owned by General Electric, which started in eastern Europe in 2002 by opening a centre in Budapest. Now it is focusing on Romania, where it launched a Bucharest operation in 2005 and another in the northern city of Cluj last year. Patrick Cogny, chief executive of Genpact in Europe, says lower labour costs, including payroll and income taxes, have been decisive in investing in Romania; now Ukraine and Moldova are on his planning horizon.

Local companies are also heading to cheaper locations. Polish furniture makers have started outsourcing work to Ukrainian and Belarussian partners. Hermes Softlab, a Slovenian software developer, has created 200 jobs in Bosnia, Serbia and Montenegro – one-quarter of its total payroll.

But just as EU accession has made it easier for workers to move west, it has made life harder for would-be migrants from further east. Ukrainians, who enjoyed visa-free travel to Poland, now face bureaucratic hurdles. Moldovans have difficulty entering Romania. Employers want an easing of restrictions. They are also recruiting labour further afield by, for example, bringing in workers from Vietnam, China and North Korea on short-term contracts.

Whatever employers do, governments will sooner or later, as in western Europe, be obliged to consider the controversial question of migration if their region is to extend its rapid economic progress.

作为总部位于华沙的厨房用具公司Meblat的老板，詹•利曼(Jan Liman)不知道该如何保证这家公司的未来。他有很好的木材来源和大量订单，但他缺少有经验的员工。

他表示：“在12名员工中，两名已移民爱尔兰。第三个也辞职了，说他也准备去爱尔兰。寻找新手的工作一直毫无进展。”

在中东欧的欧盟(EU)新成员国，到处都能听到与这位波兰企业家类似的抱怨。员工短缺现象在建筑业表现得最为严重，但也正波及到烘培业和银行业等各种不同的行业。工程师、技术专家和工厂工人都出现供应短缺。

由于经济增长强劲且外资迅速增加，东欧的就业岗位日益增多，但与此同时，已经约有500万人从东欧移民到了西欧。欧盟统计局(Eurostat)的数据显示，劳动力成本正以东欧共产党国家集团解体以来的最快速度上涨。截至去年9月的一年里，拉脱维亚的名义劳动力成本上升了30%，罗马尼亚、爱沙尼亚和立陶宛的涨幅都超过了20%。在欧盟最大的新成员国波兰，增幅也接近12%。

维也纳研究机构Wiiw的数据显示，2007年前9个月，波兰平均实际薪资增长逾7%，罗马尼亚则接近16%。

就业市场“由雇员主导”

自2002年以来，西欧的失业率一直维持在8%左右，而东欧的失业率则从14%降至不到9%。在蓬勃发展的东欧各国首府，几乎所有希望工作的人都拥有工作。会计和管理咨询公司毕马威(KPMG)中欧地区主管莱谢克•弗龙斯基(Leszek Wronski)表示：“这个就业市场是雇员主导的。”

许多东欧员工对这种控制非常受用。15年来，他们曾眼看着公司所有者从东欧剧变后的过渡中获得了巨大利益。如今，员工取得了更多利益。就像波兰总理唐纳德•图斯克(Donald Tusk)最近告诉英国《金融时报》的那样：“在波兰的一些行业，员工缺乏是一个问题……但对于那些希望享受经济增长成果的人们而言，这也相当重要。”

然而，对于东欧的政府和企业而言，不断上升的劳动力成本和不断加剧的熟练员工短缺问题，给东欧的未来竞争力提出了很大疑问。从投资地点决策到教育、移民和人口政策，一切都在重新评估。

人们无需现在就感到恐慌。即便在东欧最近薪资飙升以后，东西欧之间的薪资差距依然巨大。在德国，每小时劳动力成本约为28欧元（合41.40美元），而捷克、波兰和罗马尼亚分别约为8欧元、7.50欧元和4欧元。会计和咨询顾问集团普华永道(PwC)华沙办事处合伙人拉法尔•克拉斯诺戴布斯基(Rafal Krasnodebski)表示：“2004年，波兰和斯洛伐克的劳动力成本比西欧低70%至80%。因此（那里）的劳动力成本仍然较低，在未来很长一段时间里，仍会低于西欧。”

自2002年以来，东欧地区的国内生产总值(GDP)增幅出现了周期性大幅上升，平均年GDP增幅超过5%。然而，包括劳动力成本在内，尽管东欧经济体正慢慢向西欧看齐，但东欧目前的薪资涨幅包含了重要的一次性因素。伴随着欧盟的扩大，西欧对就业限制的放松使得数以百万计的人移民到了西欧，特别是波兰和罗马尼亚人（这两个国家是东欧人口最多的国家）。那些在西欧最为紧俏的工种，它们在本土的薪资涨幅也最快。去年，波兰建筑工人的薪资上涨了20%，罗马尼亚和拉脱维亚分别为25%和35%。

东欧经济将继续稳健增长

如今，随着信贷紧缩打击美国经济，并给西欧前景蒙上了阴影，经济学家们正对欧盟新成员国的前景进行评估。尽管多数人认为，东欧经济将继续稳健增长，但他们预期，该地区2008年的经济增幅可能会从去年的6.5%降至5%。通过降低通胀率、削减经常账户赤字，东欧一些政府和央行正在放慢经济增速。针对东欧的多边银行欧洲复兴开发银行(European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)资深经济学家兹比格涅夫•科米内克(Zbigniew Kominek)表示：“经济增幅的周期性上升可能不会持久。”

然而，即便劳动力市场稍微缓解，也不会回到5年前员工超级过剩的局面。东欧人口老龄化速度快于西欧，再加上移民的影响，波罗的海国家和中欧处于工作年龄的人口数量正不断减少。欧盟统计局预测，到2015年，欧盟新成员国的人口数量将从2004年的1.036亿降至不到1.006亿，处于工作年龄的人口数量的降幅尤为巨大。

因此，东欧地区的公司和政府必须做好应对劳动力市场长期吃紧的准备。对于决策者而言，第一个任务是提高就业率。东欧劳动力市场的参与度一直很低，特别是年龄较大人口。2006年底，波兰就业率仅为54.5%，而德国为67.5%，丹麦为77.4%（是欧盟的最高水平）。在年龄介于55岁至64岁之间的人口中，波兰的就业率仅为28.1%，德国则为48.4%。

在东欧剧变后的重建期间，提前退休和残疾人补助削弱了东欧就业数据。然而，该地区的政治领袖对于限制福利之类的举措很谨慎，因为这可能引发民众的反抗。经过多年努力后，该地区正经受着改革疲乏(reform fatigue)。

东欧劳动生产率远低于西欧

接下来，决策者和雇主需要确保劳动生产率增幅跟上劳动力成本的涨幅。美国商业研究组织世界大企业联合会(Conference Board)最近的一份报告称，东欧劳动生产率远远低于西欧。例如，波兰的劳动生产率仅是德国的40%。但单位劳动力成本的差异更大，因此，雇主正继续将劳动力密集型业务从西欧迁往东欧。芬兰的诺基亚(Nokia)就宣布，将关闭德国的手机工厂，裁员2300人，同时扩大罗马尼亚的一家工厂，聘用3500名员工。

然而，就像英国研究机构资本经济(Capital Economics)最近在一份报告中所警告的，在波兰和捷克（尽管斯洛伐克并非如此），最近的薪资涨幅超过了生产率增幅。罗马尼亚央行副行长克里斯汀•波帕(Christian Popa)表示，若要增强劳动力市场弹性并因此提高生产率，需要继续进行劳动力市场改革。“我相信这能够解决目前的问题，但这并非一蹴而就的事情。”

总部位于布鲁塞尔的智库里斯本委员会(Lisbon Council)在一份报告中称，政府和雇主必须加倍努力，通过提供更好的教育和培训，来提高生产率。“在人力资本的获取和配备方面，中东欧国家远远落后于西欧。”报告指出，尽管东欧学校大多与西欧一样有效，但在成人终身教育领域，仍存在巨大差异，包括在职培训。那些年龄较大的、共产主义陈旧教育方式培养出来的员工面临的困难最大。

企业也在对薪资上涨做出回应，它们对员工提出了更高的要求。在商业服务行业，员工正被转移到更高附加值、涉及与客户直接联系的业务中，而较简单的业务则被转移到了中国和印度。营销和金融服务集团被迫向有经验的高管提供10万欧元乃至更高的年薪，因而也对他们提出了更为严格的目标。

甚至对于那些薪资水平很高的国际银行而言，人事管理也成为了一个令人头痛的问题。奥地利瑞弗森国际银行(Raiffeisen International)罗马尼亚分行主管斯蒂芬•范•格罗宁根(Stephen van Groningen)表示：“目前的形势不可能持续下去。人们对于找工作变得极为乐观。有些人在我们这里工作3个月就辞职了。3个月后，他们希望回来继续工作，在有些情况下，我不得不表示同意。”

在薪资阶梯的更低层，雇主的生活更为艰难，尤其是较小公司。拥有80家门店的波兰干洗连锁店5 a Sec招聘经理阿格尼兹卡•亚格埃拉(Agnieszka Jagiela)表示：“尽管我们支付的薪资水平接近国家平均水平，并提供4类奖金，但员工流失率居高不下一直是个问题。”欧洲建筑业蓬勃发展之际，恰逢各国员工短缺。罗马尼亚房地产开发商Copper Beech董事总经理迪瓦卡尔•辛格(Diwaker Singh)表示：“员工极度短缺，因为正在开工的项目很多，而移民到其它国家的人也很多。”

许多雇主正通过改善工资以外的内容来应对，例如公司提供汽车，并试图通过忠诚奖金、培训计划和职业发展来挽留员工。对于跨国企业来说，这些是司空见惯的做法。但对缺乏经验的本地雇主而言，这通常比较新鲜。波兰东部一家就业服务机构Grupa Konsultacyjna的主管马雷克•马萨利斯基(Marek Masalski)表示：“一些雇主仍然没有完全理解非薪酬因素在激励和招聘员工方面的重要性。”

外国投资保持强劲

迄今为止，日益上升的劳动力成本尚没有影响该地区的整体吸引力。欧洲复兴开发银行估计，中欧和东南欧去年吸引的外国直接投资总额达到440亿美元，连续第四年保持强劲。对于将东欧视为市场和廉价劳动力基地的企业来说，它们乐于见到薪酬上升所带来的支出能力提高。此外，目前外国直接投资主要来自于已在东欧建立稳固业务的跨国企业，特别是汽车制造商，而它们正将其零部件供应商带入该地区。

但在流动性更大、成本意识更强的投资者中，出现了一种明显的转变，即从劳动力短缺的布拉格、华沙、布达佩斯和布拉迪斯拉瓦等投资热点，转向提供更多招聘空间的地点。他们青睐的地区包括波兰西里西亚和罗马尼亚大部分地区，而先行者正将目光投向更东部的地区——欧盟以外的国家，直到乌克兰和摩尔多瓦。

纺织企业，特别是对劳动力成本敏感的那些企业已首当其冲。但其它集团也在紧紧跟上，例如通用电气(GE)部分持股的美国商业服务提供商Genpact。该公司于2002年在布达佩斯开设一个中心，从此开始进入东欧开展业务。目前，该公司正将重点放在罗马尼亚，它于2005年在布加勒斯特开设了一项业务，去年在北部城市克卢日开设了另一项业务。Genpact欧洲首席执行官帕特里克•科尼(Patrick Cogny)表示，包括薪酬和所得税在内的劳动力成本相对较低，是该公司在罗马尼亚投资的决定性因素；目前，乌克兰和摩尔多瓦均在其计划之内。

本地企业也在向劳动力成本更低的地区迁移。波兰的家具制造商已开始将业务外包给乌克兰和白俄罗斯的合作伙伴。斯洛文尼亚一家软件开发商Hermes Softlab已在波斯尼亚、塞尔维亚和黑山创造了200个工作机会——相当于其员工总数的四分之一。

改革移民政策

但是，正是由于欧盟东扩使得工人更容易向西欧迁移，对于东欧更远地区的潜在移民来说，他们的生活也更为艰难。曾享受波兰免签证待遇的乌克兰人现在遇到了官僚方面的障碍。摩尔多瓦人难以进入罗马尼亚。雇主们希望放宽限制。他们还在从更远的地区招聘劳动力，例如签署短期合同，从越南、中国和朝鲜引进工人。

无论雇主怎么做，正如西欧的情况那样，如果东欧地区打算继续其迅速的经济发展进程，东欧各国政府迟早都会被迫考虑具有争议的移民问题。

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