Paulson Backed On Yuan

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson heads into next week's China economic talks with new allies in his quest to persuade Beijing to allow its currency to strengthen.

In recent weeks, top European and Japanese officials have broken from their tradition of quiet diplomacy and publicly urged China to relax its grip on the yuan -- a new international consensus Mr. Paulson hopes will prompt Beijing to speed the currency's appreciation.

'There's a much greater awareness around the world of the need for this to accelerate,' Mr. Paulson said in an interview yesterday.

The secretary and a delegation of Cabinet-level U.S. officials will meet their Chinese counterparts outside Beijing next week, the third round of the Strategic Economic Dialogue that Mr. Paulson conceived as a way for the two sides to have top-level talks about long-term issues. But inevitably, markets, executives and politicians in both countries judge the talks in part on whether they produce concrete resolution to continuing disputes.

The two sides, for instance, are expected to sign agreements addressing concerns over the safety of Chinese-made medicines, food and animal feed. But the currency issue has proved more resistant to mutual understanding.

'Every where I go . . . when you're talking about global economic issues, currency as a topic comes up,' Mr. Paulson said. 'And you can't talk about global economic issues and currency without talking about the [yuan], because it's an unnatural act to have one country play such an important role economically with a currency that isn't determined by market forces.'

U.S. manufacturers, labor unions and their representatives in Congress say Beijing's practice of keeping the yuan artificially weak against the dollar gives Chinese companies an unfair edge over their American competition and widens the U.S. trade deficit. The U.S.-China trade gap widened 14% during the first eight months of the year, to $164 billion.

With the dollar falling against the euro, Europeans are watching with alarm as their companies come up against an even greater Chinese currency advantage. The European Union's trade deficit with China ballooned 35% in the first eight months of the year, to $133.5 billion, and the currency issue was at the fore in a contentious EU-Chinese summit last month.

Japanese officials are also concerned, and Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga used recent economic talks with Beijing to press for faster yuan appreciation. 'I have asked them if they could take steps to let it rise at the fastest possible speed,' Mr. Nukaga told reporters last weekend.

'It's easier for them to shrug off one country complaining,' said Nicholas Lardy, senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics. 'Now that it's several -- a large number of Europeans plus Japan -- it's going to be more difficult for them to do so.'

Still, the Chinese have shown a reluctance to take dramatic steps for fear of upsetting the export-driven economic growth that has to create jobs for millions of new workers each year. While Beijing has allowed the yuan to appreciate about 12% against the dollar since allowing it to move in July 2005, it has barely budged when measured against a weighted basket of currencies of China's trading partners. 'I think they've given Paulson almost nothing,' said Mr. Lardy.

Mr. Paulson said that Chinese officials understand 'the principle of appreciation' and its role in helping them combat inflation. 'So again, we're talking about the pace here . . . And I would be hopeful that this will accelerate moving forward and that there will continue to be global attention on this issue.'

下周美国财政部长鲍尔森(Henry Paulson)将率团参加中美战略经济对话。在说服北京加快人民币升值方面，这次他有了新的盟友。

近几周来，欧洲和日本高层一反以往对人民币问题的沉默态度，转而公开敦促中国放宽对人民币的控制。鲍尔森希望这一新的国际共识将促进北京方面加快人民币升值。

鲍尔森在周三接受采访时表示，全世界都越来越意识到加速人民币升值的必要性。

下周鲍尔森将率美国政府代表团在北京附近与中方举行第三次战略经济对话。鲍尔森认为战略经济对话是双方就长期存在的问题进行高层会谈的一个途径。但不可避免的是，两国的商界和政界人士对会谈的成果在某种程度上是根据双方能否就持续性冲突达成具体决议而作判断的。

例如，预计双方将就中国产药品、食品和饲料的安全性问题签订协议。但事实证明就汇率问题达成共识将遭遇较大的阻力。

鲍尔森说，无论他去什么地方，当谈起全球经济问题时，都离不开货币这个话题。你不能在谈论全球经济和货币问题时把人民币撇在一边，因为一个国家在经济上占有如此重要的地位，而其货币价值却不是由市场决定，这违反了自然规律。

美国制造商、工会及其在国会的代表称，北京方面人为地将人民币兑美元汇率保持在一个低水平上，这种不公平的做法给了中国公司比美国竞争对手更多的优势，而且还加大了美中贸易逆差。今年前8个月，美中贸易逆差达1,640亿美元，增加了14%。

随着美元兑欧元的走软，人民币汇率给欧洲公司带来了更大的压力，欧洲也开始惊慌地关注起事态变化。今年前8个月，欧盟对华贸易逆差激增到1,335亿美元，扩大了35%。货币问题成为上个月充满争议的中欧峰会上的主要议题。

日本政府官员也非常关注人民币汇率。日本财政大臣额贺福志郎(Fukushiro Nukaga)在最近与北京方面进行的经济会谈上督促中国加快人民币升值步伐。额贺福志郎在上周末接受采访时表示，他已经向中方提出能否采取措施加快人民币的升值速度。

国际经济研究所(Institute for International Economics)的高级研究员尼古拉斯•拉蒂(Nicholas Lardy)说，如果只有一个国家抱怨，中国还可以轻松地一笑置之；不过现在有好几个国家都在抱怨，包括几个欧洲国家和日本，情况就不那么简单了。

尽管如此，中国已表现出不愿采取过激措施，因为担心这会损害每年可以提供数百万新岗位的外向型经济的增长。虽然自2005年7月中国允许人民币升值以来，人民币兑美元已累计升值12%，但人民币兑中国贸易伙伴的“一篮子”货币汇率几乎分毫未动。拉蒂说，他认为鲍尔森从中国几乎没有任何收获。

鲍尔森说，中国政府官员理解升值的原则及其在抑制通货膨胀中的作用。所以现在的关键问题是升值速度。人民币升值步伐将加快，并且全球仍将继续关注这个问题，他对此充满希望。

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