Americans Become Thrifty

Americans Face a Continental Thrift

America is rediscovering its puritanical roots.

The Consumer Price Index's 1% drop in a single month grabs headlines, but nine-tenths of that relates to falling food and energy prices. More worrying is the 0.1% drop in the core index, with shopaholic fixes like clothing, hotel stays and vehicles all falling. Airline fares decreased by 4.8%, despite large cuts to capacity.

For now, annual inflation, while down sharply from September's 4.9%, is still positive at 3.7%. Energy and food will continue to have a big impact. Adjusting their respective weights in the basket for price moves this year, a return of these key items back to October 2007 levels would take another 1.8% off.

The risk of wider deflation is now unmistakable. The American consumer -- roughly 70% of the domestic economy -- is switching away from asset-fueled sprees to living on regular income. Consumer borrowing is down 1.5% year-on-year, a pace of decline last seen in the early 1990s recession.

The big question is how quickly shoppers can be lured back to the malls. So far, rapid monetary easing hasn't worked. Neither the tax rebates sent out earlier this year nor the implied stimulus of lower gasoline prices -- worth an annualized $283 billion based on the decline since July's peak -- has had a radical effect.

David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's North American economist, reckons annual CPI could hit 0% within a year, as commodity prices fall, but also as rising unemployment erodes spending power further. Official lending rates, already near zero, will likely fall further. But with the consumer recession still in its infancy, the case for a big expansion in fiscal-stimulus programs is strengthening by the day.

美国人正面临过紧日子的前景。

美国也正重新找回自己的清教传统。

10月份消费者价格指数下跌1%这一消息虽然一时间成了各家媒体的头条新闻，但这一跌幅十分之九要归因于食品和能源价格的下跌。更令人担忧的是核心消费者价格指数那0.1%的跌幅，服装、酒店以及汽车等令购物狂心仪的东西都在降价。尽管各航空公司大幅削减运能，但机票价格还是下降了4.8%。

今年截至10月底的年通货膨胀率虽然已大大低于9月份时的4.9%，但仍然达到3.7%。能源和食品价格将继续对总体物价产生巨大影响。根据食品和能源今年在消费者价格指数中的权重计算，如果这两类产品的价格回落至2007年10月份时的水平，那么美国的消费者价格指数还将下滑1.8%。

物价存在更广泛下跌的危险已经是不争的事实。对美国经济增长的贡献率约为70%的国内消费者正转向依据常规收入安排生活，而名下资产的不断增值曾一度让他们花钱变得大手大脚。10月份的消费贷款额较上年同期下降了1.5%，上次出现如此大的跌幅还是90年代初美国经济陷入衰退的时候。

现在的一大问题是，人们要用多长时间才能恢复到商场大举购物的习惯。政府迅速放松货币政策的举措迄今尚未起到明显提振消费的作用。无论是今年早些时候的退税措施，还是汽油价格下跌对消费的间接提振作用（如果以今年7月汽油价格的年内高点计，油价下跌每年可为美国消费者省下2,830亿美元），都未能明显提振美国人的消费。

美林(Merrill Lynch)的北美经济学家罗森伯格(David Rosenberg)预计，美国消费者价格指数的年增幅一年之内有可能降至零，这既是因为大宗商品价格的下跌，也是因为不断上升的失业率正在进一步侵蚀美国人的购买力。官方的贷款利率虽然已接近于零，但预计仍将进一步下调。不过鉴于消费支出下降还只是初露端倪，政府大幅提高财政刺激力度的可能性正在与日俱增。