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美国消费开支增加但通胀压力加大
http://www.ebigear.com   seniorlove  华尔街日报  2008-05-02 13:21:59  125  评论3
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Consumer Spending Picks Up But Key Inflation Gauge Accelerates

The nation's economy is being battered from all sides, new data show, as labor markets weaken, rising prices exact a heavy toll and anxious consumers cut back on spending.

The data released Thursday pointed to continued contraction in manufacturing and feeble growth in Americans' incomes and spending, after adjusting for inflation.

The Institute for Supply Management said its index of factory activity for April was 48.6, the same as the month before. A number below 50 indicates contraction. The index, based on a survey of purchasing managers, showed a contraction in new orders and production, as well as surges in prices paid to suppliers.

Exports continued to rise, reflecting the weak dollar, which makes U.S. goods cheaper abroad. Backlogs of orders increased after six months of declines.

Norbert Ore, a Georgia-Pacific Corp. executive who directs the survey, said he expects 'consistent belt-tightening' at companies throughout the year, while the economy continues the 'slow deceleration' that started last year.

'I don't see anything that will speed that up at this point,' he said. 'The three sources of spending we look to are government, consumer and business. And all three of them are in very much of a holding pattern.'

A decline in the ISM's employment index was the latest sign that manufacturers are slashing jobs or choosing not to replace departing workers.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said jobless claims soared 35,000 to 380,000 last week, moving closer to a level usually associated with recessions. The four-week moving average, designed to smooth out volatility, fell by 6,500 claims to 363,750.

In addition, the number of people remaining on jobless rolls -- called continuing claims -- rose 74,000 to 3.02 million, the first time in four years the number has exceeded three million.

On Friday, the department is scheduled to release its report on April employment, and most analysts are expecting a fourth-consecutive monthly decline.

Thursday's reports confirmed that price increases are occurring throughout the economy. The ISM's index of prices rose to its highest point since May 2004, with more than two-thirds of companies reporting that they are paying higher prices to their suppliers; in particular, they complained about the costs of oil, metals and other commodities.

The rising prices are hitting consumers hard as well. In March, the government's price index for personal-consumption expenditures, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.2% from a year earlier, the Commerce Department said. Excluding food and energy it rose 0.2% from the previous month and 2.1% from a year earlier. Fed officials generally prefer that this 'core' inflation rate stay between 1.5% and 2%.

Consumer spending rose 0.4% in March from the month before, as spending on services more than offset a drop in purchases of durable goods -- products such as appliances and cars that are intended to last three years or more. After accounting for inflation, spending edged up 0.1%.

新的经济数据显示,美国经济已是遍体鳞伤。在就业市场低迷和物价上涨等阴云笼罩下,惊慌失措的消费者只得捂紧自己的钱包。

美国周四公布的经济数据显示制造业继续收缩,而经通胀因素调整后的个人收入和支出数据也增长乏力。

美国供应管理学会(Institute for Supply Management, 简称ISM)公布,4月份制造业指数为48.6,与3月份持平。指数小于50说明制造业在收缩。该指数显示,4月份的新订单和产量仍处于收缩状态,而支付给供应商的货款却在增加。

美元贬值为美国商品在出口价格上创造了优势,因而带动出口保持增长。大宗订单在连续六个月下滑后开始回升。

参加调查的Georgia-Pacific Corp.高管诺伯特•奥尔(Norbert Ore)认为,在美国经济维持“缓慢减速”的状态下,美国公司今年一整年都要“勒紧裤腰带”过日子。

他表示,现在看不到任何回暖的征兆。政府、消费者和企业是支出的三大来源,而现在他们都捉襟见肘。

最新公布的ISM就业指数出现下滑,由此可见制造商正在裁员或是暂缓填补职位空缺。

另一方面,美国劳工部(Labor Department)周四公布,上周首次申请失业救济人数增长3.5万人,至38万人,已逼近通常意味着经济衰退的水平。不过首次申请失业救济人数四周平均数减少了6,500人,降至363,750人。

报告还显示,截至4月19日当周,持续领取失业救济一周以上的人数增长74,000人,至302万人,乃四年以来首次突破300万人。

劳工部拟于周五公布4月份就业报告,大多数分析师预计就业数字会连续第四个月下滑。

周四的数据证实了物价上涨正在经济的各个领域蔓延。ISM的价格指数创下2004年5月以来的最高水平,有三分之二的公司报告说支付给供应商的货款在增加,石油、金属和其他大宗商品的价格让他们苦不堪言。

物价上涨也对消费者造成沉重打击。美国商务部(Commerce Department)称,3月份个人消费支出价格指数(PCE)较上年同期上升3.2%,美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)一贯乐用这个指标来评估通胀水平。不包括食品和能源在内的核心PCE较前月上升0.2%,较上年同期升2.1%。而Fed通常乐见该“核心通胀率”维持在1.5%至2%之间。

商务部还公布,3月份消费开支较前月增长0.4%。服务支出的增加足以抵消家用电器和汽车等耐用品购买支出的减少。经通胀因素调整后,3月份的消费开支只上升了0.1%。
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