Chinese banks will announce record profits for 2007 in coming weeks in contrast with their global counterparts, which have been forced into large write-offs in the wake of the credit crisis.
But 2008 will be much more challenging as a global slowdown spills over into China and the government attempts to cool the economy and head off rising inflation.
中国一些规模最大的银行——包括中国工商银行(ICBC)和中国交通银行(Bank of Communications)——已经表示，其2007年业绩同比增长逾60%，分析师表示，整个行业的净利润水平也出现了同等幅度的增长。
Some of the country’s biggest banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of Communications, have already said their earnings rose by more than 60 per cent year-on-year in 2007 and analysts say net profits for the industry grew by a similar amount.
Estimates published in domestic media put pre-tax profits for all domestic banks at Rmb610bn ($85.4bn), an 83 per cent increase from a year earlier, although analysts said it was hard to confirm the figure before annual reports have been released.
“2007 was a fantastic year for the banks but the fourth quarter saw some weakness already and 2008 will be a lot harder,” according to Dominic Chan, director of financial institutions research at CLSA in Hong Kong. “They are going to be hurt by ongoing administrative measures and erosion in asset quality.”
China’s lenders are dealing with an over-abundance of credit and the government’s attempts to rein it in. “The banks were firing on all cylinders last year and all their major areas of business did well,” said Leo Wah, a banking analyst with Moody’s in Hong Kong. “But their performance this year depends on the Chinese government’s policy of monetary tightening, which it is unlikely to abandon soon.”
Faced with headline consumer inflation that hit an 11-year high of 7.1 per cent in January, the government has issued restrictive loan growth quotas to Chinese and foreign banks in an attempt to cool the economy.
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