EAST ASIA'S SURGE FORECAST TO CONTINUE

East Asia's economies are likely to weather the effects of any slowdown in the US economy and continue their breakneck growth next year thanks to the continuing strength of the Chinese economy, the World Bank said yesterday.

In its latest semi-annual report on East Asia, excluding Japan, the bank said the region would grow 8.4 per cent this year, up from a forecast of 7.3 per cent made in April. For 2008, it forecast growth of 8.2 per cent, which would keep the region's growth above 8 per cent for the third year running.

Concerns about higher oil prices and a US slowdown had “clearly increased downside risks”, the report's authors said. But they added that their studies of past economic crises led them to believe that even a US slowdown to 0 per cent growth, from about 2 per cent currently, would take only a single percentage point off East Asian growth

Such an event would, therefore, be “significant but no disaster”. For now, the World Bank is forecasting that the US economy will grow 1.9 per cent this year and 2 per cent in 2008.

The World Bank said it expected crude to average $72 a barrel in 2008. But the report also estimated that an oil price of $90 next year would shave off just over 1 per cent of East Asia's gross domestic product, in line with the impact of higher oil prices over the past three to four years.

China will continue to drive the region's economic expansion, with expected growth of 11.3 per cent this year and 10.8 per cent in 2008, according to the bank. Still, Milan Brahmbhatt, lead author of the report, warned that the country needed to contain its trade surplus and rein in inflation.

Although the benchmark Shanghai Composite index has risen 97 per cent this year, the consequences of a Chinese stock market correction for the wider economy were “likely to be fairly limited”, said Bert Hofman, the bank's lead China economist.

世界银行(World Bank)昨日表示，得益于中国经济持续强劲增长，东亚经济体有可能平稳渡过美国经济放缓造成的影响，并在明年继续保持强劲的增长势头。

世行在其最新一期的《东亚经济半年报》（除日本以外）中表示，今年该地区经济增长率将达到8.4%，高于4月份预测的7.3%。世行预测，该地区2008年的经济增长率为8.2%，从而使该地区经济增长率连续第三年保持在8%以上。

报告作者表示，油价上涨和美国经济放缓“明显加大了全球经济的下行风险”。但他们补充称，对以往经济危机的研究使他们相信，即便美国经济增长率从目前的约2%降至零水平，也只会对东亚经济增长率造成下降一个百分点的影响。

因此，类似事件“虽影响重大但绝非灾难”。世行暂时将今年的美国经济增长率预测定为1.9%，2008年为2%。

世行表示，预计2008年原油价格平均为每桶72美元。但报告还估计，如果明年油价达到每桶90美元，东亚仅将遭受高于其GDP1%的收入损失，这符合过去3至4年油价上涨造成的影响。

世行称，中国将继续推动该地区的经济增长，预计今年中国经济增长率为11.3%，2008年为10.8%。不过，报告的主要作者米兰•布拉姆巴特(Milan Brahmbhatt)警告，中国需要抑制贸易顺差和通货膨胀。

世界银行中国首席经济学家郝福满(Bert Hofman)表示，尽管基准的上证综合指数(Shanghai Composite index)今年已累计上涨97%，但中国股市回调对更广泛实体经济造成的影响“可能非常有限”。

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