过热的中国开始出口通胀?

CHINA'S OVERHEATING ECONOMY







Lex

Friday, April 20, 2007







Is

China overheating? Thursday's release of gross domestic product data added fuel to the perennial question: the economy grew at a faster-than-expected 11.1 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter. Inflation, at 3.3 per cent, nudged above the comfort zone. The data were held back until after China's stock markets closed, but that did not prevent a pre-emptive panic, sending local equities down nearly 5 per cent.

These warning bells resonate louder now that China is a paid-up member of the global economy. Most worrying is the fear that China, which once helped to lower global prices, could start exporting inflation. That is still a way off ? the spike in March data was almost wholly due to food ? but pressures are building. Wages are growing at an annual 15 per cent clip and, while excess manufacturing capacity remains, it has a less benign impact now that services command a bigger slice of the economy. Asset inflation, as evidenced by bubbles in real estate and equities, is rampant.

The problem for Beijing is that, having unleashed a market-oriented economy, it is harder to temper growth with its preferred administrative measures. Calls to cool lending have not stopped factories and plants proliferating. The increases in local banks' reserve ratios did not prevent the industry making new loans of $180bn in the first quarter, almost half the total for all of 2006. And the bite-sized rises in interest rates have clearly failed to curtail the stock market frenzy. The Shanghai domestic-currency market, despite falling 8.8 per cent one day in February, is up 20 per cent since the start of 2007 and retail investors are opening trading accounts at a record pace.









英国《金融时报》Lex专栏

2007年4月20日 星期五







中

国经济过热么？这个问题最近一直萦绕在人们心头，而周四发布的国内生产总值(GDP)数据更是增添了人们的疑问：中国经济今年第一季度较上年同期增长11.1%，增幅高于预期。与此同时，3.3%的通货膨胀率也略微超出了让人们放心的水平。虽然这些数据直到中国股市收盘后才发布，却未能防止恐慌情绪先发而至，导致股市下跌近5%。

这些警钟互鸣，用越来越强的声音提醒着人们，中国已经完全成为全球经济的一员。人们最担心的是，一度帮助压低全球价格的中国，可能会开始出口通胀。目前尚不至于此——3月份通胀率高企，几乎完全是因为食品价格上涨——但压力正在不断增大。工资在以每年15%的速度增长；尽管制造业产能过剩的问题依然存在，但影响力已不如从前，因为服务业在中国经济中占据了更大的比重。资产价格正在疯狂上涨，房地产和股市的泡沫即是佐证。

中国政府面临的问题在于，既已开始建立市场经济，便越来越难以利用其偏爱的行政手段来遏制经济增速。政府要求银行控制信贷，但未能阻止工厂的激增。尽管多次提高国内银行的存款准备金率，但银行业第一季度新增贷款仍高达1800亿美元，几乎是2006年全年水平的一半。此外，利率的小幅提高显然未能阻止股市狂热。上海A股市场尽管在2月的某天曾暴跌8.8%，但自年初以来已上涨了20%，散户投资者开设交易账户的速度达到了创纪录水平。

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