Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Vice Premier Wang Qishan will be in Maryland USA this week to meet with US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson for the latest round of the Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED). This will be the first time that Wang has headed the Chinese delegation, after his appointment as Vice Premier with responsibility for financial and trade issues. Wang's deep understanding of the financial sector, and reputation as a problem solver, will raise expectations for this fourth round of the Dialogue.

中国副总理王岐山本周将前往美国马里兰州会见美国财政部长汉克•保尔森(Hank Paulson)，开始新一轮的中美战略经济对话。这将是王岐山就任主管金融和贸易事务的副总理以来，首次率领中国代表团参加这一对话。王岐山对金融行业有着深入的了解，素有“救火队长”之誉。此次由他带队，将唤起人们对于中美第四轮战略经济对话的种种期待。

The key issues for the US side remain the trade balance and the value of the RMB. China's trade surplus with the US has decelerated from 26.3% YoY growth in 2006, to 12.9% in 2007, to just over 1.1% YoY in the first 5 months of 2008. The slowdown in the US economy and the weaker dollar will impact China's export growth, and strong Chinese domestic demand and a stronger RMB have driven higher levels of imports.

对于美国方面而言，贸易平衡和人民币币值仍是关键问题。中美贸易顺差的年度同比增长率，已由2006年的26.3%降至2007年的12.9%，2008年前5个月仅为略高于1.1%。美国经济放缓和美元疲软将影响中国的出口增长，而中国内需旺盛及人民币升值已推高了进口额。

The RMB has continued to appreciate against the dollar and in April crossed the symbolic 7 RMB to the dollar threshold. Since the first meeting of the SED the RMB has strengthened more than 11% against the dollar, from 7.82 at end of 2006 to 6.91 today, with the most rapid appreciation occurring in the first quarter of this year. The US side has characterized the appreciation of the RMB against the dollar as significant and welcome but has called for further appreciation. As Beijing works to contain the impact of higher global commodity prices on the economy, ongoing steady appreciation is the most likely scenario.

人民币兑美元持续升值，并于4月份突破了1美元兑7元人民币这一具有象征意义的关口。自首轮中美战略经济对话启动以来，人民币兑美元已升值逾11%，从2006年底的7.82元人民币，升至目前的6.91元人民币。今年第一季度升值速度最快。美方用“重大”来形容人民币兑美元的升值，对此表示欢迎，但同时呼吁进一步升值。由于中国政府正努力遏制全球大宗商品价格上涨对经济的冲击，人民币继续稳步升值是可能性最大的前景。



The weak dollar has also become a focus of attention. The Chinese side has said that the sub-prime mortgage crisis, US downturn, and the impact of the dollar's depreciation on the global economy will be on the agenda. At last weekend's meeting of G-8 Finance Ministers in Osaka, Japan, Henry Paulson repeated his support for a stronger dollar.

美元疲软也成为了一个关注的焦点。中方已表示，次贷危机、美国经济低迷以及美元贬值对全球经济的影响，将成为本次对话的议题。在上周末日本大阪举行的G8财长会议上，保尔森重申支持强势美元。

Paulson has also signaled that China's price controls on fuel and electricity are an area of concern for the US. The US side may be concerned that controlled low prices in China are driving higher demand, which is contributing to very high global oil and coal prices. A long-term framework agreement on energy and the environment covering clean air, clean water, clean and efficient production and transmission of electricity, and transportation, may be one of the key deliverables from the meeting. US industry has also raised concerns over China's anti-monopoly law, which they fear may be applied in a way that discriminates against US firms operating in China.



保尔森还表示，中国对燃油和电力的价格管制是美方的关切之一。美方可能担心，中国管控之下较低的价格水平，正推动需求上升，一定程度上导致全球石油和煤炭价格处于相当高的水平。就能源和环境问题签署一个长期的框架协议，内容涵盖清洁空气、清洁水、电力的清洁及高效生产与传输，以及交通等方面，可能成为本次会议的关键成果之一。美国企业界还对中国的反垄断法表示担忧，担心该法规在实施中可能对在华经营的美国企业构成歧视。

The Chinese side will be accompanied by a delegation of companies from the mainland. Where previous delegations have focused on buying US products, this time the focus will be on investment. Chinese corporates are poised for overseas expansion in search of new markets and natural resources. The SED may raise expectations for mergers and acquisitions in the US. Some US companies are in distress as a result of the credit crisis, but the investment review process can complicate the acquisition of major assets by overseas companies.

中方将有一个由内地企业组成的代表团随行。以前的代表团都把重点放在购买美国产品上，而此次则重点关注投资。中国企业正准备进行海外扩张，以寻找新的市场和自然资源。中美战略经济对话可能引发有关中国企业在美国实施并购的预期。受信贷危机影响，一些美国公司目前正处于困境之中。然而，美国的外国投资审核程序，可能令外国公司对美国重大资产的收购变得复杂化。

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