German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures: paper



A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated.



A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated.

Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.

NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organization, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.

The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029.

Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometres a second (1.9 miles), at up to 35,880 kilometres above earth -- and the Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometres.

If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.

Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.

The shockwaves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, whilst creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely.

The 13-year old made his discovery as part of a regional science competition for which he submitted a project entitled: "Apophis -- The Killer Astroid."

德国一家报纸于本周二报道，德国一名13岁男孩发现并纠正了美国宇航局有关一颗小行星与地球相撞几率的计算错误。

据德国《Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten》报道，这个名叫尼科•马夸特的男孩根据波茨坦天体物理研究所天文望远镜获得的数据资料，计算出阿波菲斯行星撞击地球的几率为1/450，而非美国宇航局之前估算的1/45000。

美国宇航局得知这一消息后，告知“兄弟”机构欧洲航天局这个“小神童”的计算结果是正确的。

马夸特考虑到了阿波菲斯行星在2029年4月13日靠近地球时与一颗或多颗围绕地球运转的卫星相撞的可能性。目前地球周围的卫星达四万颗。

这些卫星位于地球上方3.588万公里，运行速度为每秒3.07公里，而阿波菲斯行星则预计将在距离地球3.25万公里的地方经过。

如果这颗小行星于2029年撞上一颗卫星，它的运行轨道就会改变，那么它很可能将在2036年下一次靠近地球时与地球相撞。

美国宇航局与马夸特一致认为，如果阿波菲斯行星真的与地球相撞，将会产生一个直径320米、重达2000亿吨的铁铱合金球，坠入大西洋。

而由此产生的冲击波会引发海啸巨浪，摧毁附近的岛屿和内陆地区，同时厚厚的尘埃云会长时间地笼罩在天空中。

马夸特的这个新发现来自他参加一项地区科学竞赛时提交的参赛项目，他的参赛项目名为“阿波菲斯——一颗杀手行星”。

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